GBP/JPY jumped to as high as 126.06 last week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 124.33. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen towards 127.30 resistance, which is close to 161.8% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 127.26. At noted before, we're treating rebound from 117.29 as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 116.83. Hence, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42 to finish the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. Below 124.49 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 122.04 should then bring retest of 116.83 low next.
In the bigger picture, the choppy decline from 163.05 is viewed as part of the down trend from 251.09 and there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Such down trend is expected to continue after consolidation pattern from 116.83 finishes and target 110 psychological next. However, sustained break of above mentioned 128.42 will raise the odds that GBP/JPY has bottomed in medium term and will turn focus back to 140.20 resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Fall from 163.05 could be a wave five based on it's choppy structure and lack of decisive momentum. After all, there is no sign of bottoming yet and GBP/JPY is still in favor to target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level, before the cross bottoms.