GBP/JPY's rally from 117.28 accelerated to as high as 128.95 last week and took out mentioned 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42. The stronger then expected rise indicates that fall from 140.02 is finished at 116.83 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement at 131.16 first. Break will target a test on 140.02 next. On the downside, below 126.83 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, the choppy decline from 163.05 is viewed as part of the down trend from 251.09. Current development is starting to suggest that such fall is finished. Focus is now turned to 140.02 key resistance. Sustained break there will firstly indication completion of fall from 163.05. More importantly, this will also signal completion of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. In such case, stronger rise should be seen back to retest on 163.05. On the downside,
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. It's still a bit too early to say whether such down trend is finished yet and as long as 140.02 resistance holds, another fall would remain favor to 100 psychological level. Nonetheless, break of 140.02 will confirm bottoming and GBP/JPY Could then correct the whole down trend form 251.09.