GBP/JPY edged higher to 135.94 last week but lost momentum and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Below 132.66 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 130.42 support. Break there will indicate that whole recovery from 126.73 is completed and will target a retest of this low first. On the upside, above 135.94 will bring another rise. However, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption finally.
In the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view that rebound from 118.81, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already after failing to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.