GBP/JPY continued to stay in tight range above 132.66 minor support last week as consolidations continued. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more sideway trading might be seen. As noted before, another rise cannot be ruled out with 132.66 intact. But even in such case, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption finally. On the downside, break of 132.66 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 130.42 minor support. Break there will suggest that whole recovery from 126.73 is completed and will target a retest of this low first.

In the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view that rebound from 118.81, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already after failing to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY