GBP/JPY's intra-week fall was contained at 131.27 last week, above 130.42 support and recovered. The development argues that consolidation from 126.73 might still be in progress. Initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 135.99 will bring another rise towards 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60. On the downside, though, below 131.27 will revive the case that recovery from 126.73 is finished and flip bias to the downside for retesting 126.73 low first.

In the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view. Firstly, decline from 163.05 is still in progress for retesting 118.81 low. Secondly, such decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. Break of 118.18 will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY