GBP/JPY had another volatile week last week but it's still bounded in range of 130.42/136.39 and we'll stay neutral. Nevertheless, it's looking increasing likely that price actions from 136.39 are merely consolidations to rebound from 126.73 only. Decisive break of 135.79 resistance will suggests that such rebound has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60 and above. On the downside, though, break of 130.42 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 126.73 to 136.39 at 130.42) will indicate that such rebound is finished and bring retest of 126.73 low.

In the bigger picture, with 145.94 resistance intact, we'd still favor that fall from 163.05 is not finished and would resume for a retest of 118.18 low. Break there will confirm that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 has resumed for 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. However, break of 145.94 will indicate that fall from 163.05 is finished. Also, this will suggest that such fall is merely the second wave of the whole consolidation pattern from 118.81 and will bring another rise to 163.05 and above before resuming the longer term down trend.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81.