GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 132.77 last week and the development argues that whole choppy rebound from 126.73 has finished at 137.75 already. Hence we'd stay bearish as long as 135.45 resistance holds and expect another fall sooner or later. Below 132.77 will target 130.82 support first and break of confirm this bearish case and target a new low below 126.73. However, break of 135.45 will argue that GBP/JPY might have a test on the medium term falling trend line before completing the correction from 126.73.

In the bigger picture, GBP/JPY is still trending well below the medium term falling trend line from 163.05 and thus fall from there is still in progress for a test on 118.18 low. Break there will confirm that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 has resumed for 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. However, note that sustained trading above the trend line (now at 138.53) will argue that fall from 163.05 is finished and turn focus to 145.94 for confirmation. Also, this will suggest that such fall is merely the second wave of the whole consolidation pattern from 118.81 and will bring another rise to 163.05 and above before resuming the longer term down trend.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81.

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