GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | April 28 2012 8:56 AM

GBP/JPY struggled in tight range last week and more sideway trading could be seen in near term. Though, with 129.83 minor support intact, another rise remains mildly in favor. Above 131.79 will target 133.48 first. Break will resume whole rally from 117.29 and target 140.02 key resistance. Though, break of 129.83 will indicate completion of the recovery from 127.10. In that case, bias will be flipped back to the downside for 127.10 and below to extend the fall from 133.48.

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In the bigger picture, with 126.54 support intact, rise from 117.29 should still be in progress. Current development is still in line with the view that choppy decline from 163.05 is finished at 116.83 already. We'd favor further rise to 140.02 key resistance level next. Decisive break there will confirm this bullish case and target 163.05 key resistance next. Nonetheless, another fall and break of 126.54 will put focus back to 116.83 low instead.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. It's still a bit too early to say whether such down trend is finished yet and as long as 140.02 resistance holds, another fall would remain favor to 100 psychological level. Nonetheless, break of 140.02 will confirm bottoming and GBP/JPY could then correct the whole down trend form 251.09.