GBP/JPY dived to as low as 124.64 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and current fall from 133.48 should target 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 133.48 at 123.19 next. Sustained break there will target a test on 116.83/117.29 support zone next. On the upside, above 125.72 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 127.10 support turned resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the acceleration of the fall from 133.48 suggests that rebound from 116.83 is finished with three waves up to 133.48. Note that GBP/JPY is limited well below 140.02 resistance, is now back below 55 weeks EMA and has weekly MACD crossed below signal line. Overall picture now argues that choppy decline from 163.05 is not finished. Sustained break of above mentioned 123.19 fibo level will likely send GBP/JPY through 116.83 to extend the long term down trend towards 100 psychological level.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Current development dampens the case of medium term bottoming and GBP/JPY would likely drop towards 100 psychological level on down trend resumption.