GBP/JPY dipped to as low as 122.03 last week but lacked follow through selling since then and recovered strongly. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. At this point, we're mildly favoring the case that corrective rebound from 118.82 is finished at 125.82 already, after hitting 55 days EMA. As long as 124.04 minor resistance holds, we'd expect another fall ahead. Below 122.03 will target a test on 118.82 first. Nonetheless, break of 124.04 will in turn argue that rebound from 118.82 is going to extend for another high above 125.82 before completion.

In the bigger picture, there was so far no impulsive upside move after GBP/JPY formed a medium term bottom at 116.83. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling neither. The development argues that even though there is no clear sign of trend reversal in GBP/JPY, it's more likely engaging in sideway consolidations, which corrects fall from 163.05. That is, we'd probably see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Current development gives no indication of medium term reversal yet and GBP/JPY would likely drop towards 100 psychological level on down trend resumption.

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