GBP/JPY's consolidation from 125.51 continued last week. Initial bias remains neutral for more choppy sideway trading. Note again that as long as 123.26 minor support holds, we'd expect rise from 120.82 to continue. Decisive break of 125.51/82 resistance zone will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 118.82 and should target 100% projection of 118.82 to 125.82 from 120.82 at 127.82 next. However, break of 123.26 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 120.82 support instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 113.48 and above. But this is far from being certain. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Current development gives no indication of medium term reversal yet and GBP/JPY would likely drop towards 100 psychological level on down trend resumption.

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