GBP/JPY edged higher to 128.82 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated. More consolidative trading would be seen initially this week. But downside attempt should be contained by 124.41 support and bring rebound. Break of 128.82 will extend the whole rally from 118.82 to 133.48 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. But this is far from being certain. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Current development gives no indication of medium term reversal yet and GBP/JPY would likely drop towards 100 psychological level on down trend resumption.

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