GBP/JPY stayed in range of 124.81/128.40 last week but the late dip suggests that recovery from 124.841 is finished. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for a test on 124.81 first. Break there will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 140.02 and should target 122.15 support next. On the upside, above 127.38 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and extend the consolidations from 124.81. But after all, break of 130.84 resistance is needed to indicate reversal. Or we'll stay bearish in the cross.

In the bigger picture, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA and subsequent decline suggests that rebound from 122.15 was possibly just a correction. That is, fall from 163.05 is still in progress for another low below 122.15 Outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 135.11 resistance holds. Nevertheless, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, break of 135.11 resistance will signal that rebound from 122.15 is resuming. Decisive break of 140.02 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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