GBP/JPY rebounded strongly to as high as 149.28 last week. The development indicates that a short term bottom is in place at 139.69. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise might be seen. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be limited by 149.01/153.22 resistance zone to conclude the rebound. Below 147.11 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 143.51 resistance turned support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 136.69 support first.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. medium term rebound from 118.18, which is treated as correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should now target a new low below 118.81.

However, note that decisive break of 153.22 resistance will argue that fall from 163.05 has completed at 139.72 already. This will in turn argue that it's probably just a correction to the medium term rise only. Another high above 163.05 might be seen in such case before rise from 118.81 concludes.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY