GBP/JPY's rebounded strongly to as high as 153.21 last week but after all, with 153.22/154.13 (61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 138.72 at 154.13) resistance zone intact, there is no change in the view that such rebound is merely a correction to fall from 163.05 only. Friday's break of 150.55 minor support, with mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, suggests that a short term top is in place. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 148.18) first. Sustained trading below will add more credence to this case and target a retest of 139.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged with 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 138.72 at 154.13 intact. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is treated as correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should target a new low below 118.81 after completing the current rebound from 139.69. However, note that decisive break of 153.22/154.13 resistance zone will argue that fall from 163.05 has completed at 139.72 already. This will in turn argue that it's probably just a correction to the medium term rise only. Another high above 163.05 might be seen in such case before rise from 118.81 concludes.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY