While the intra-week recovery in GBP/JPY was strong, it was limited well below 153.21 and reversed. GBP/JPY then dived to close the week near to the low and thus retain the bearish outlook. That is, whole rebound from 139.69 should have completed at 153.21 already, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 138.72 at 154.13. Initial bias is on the downside this week and break of 147.64 will affirm this case and bring fall resumption to 144.51 support first. Break there will target a retest of 139.69 low next. On the upside, however, a break of 151.72 will dampen this view again and put focus back to 153.22/154.13 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged with 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 138.72 at 154.13 intact. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is treated as correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should target a new low below 118.81 after completing the current rebound from 139.69. However, note that decisive break of 154.13 fibonacci resistance will argue that fall from 163.05 has completed at 139.72 already. This will in turn argue that it's probably just a correction to the medium term rise only. Another high above 163.05 might be seen in such case before rise from 118.81 concludes.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY