GBP/JPY was a touch softer last week but after all, it's still bounded in familiar range. Nevertheless, we're slightly favoring the bearish case that rebound from 139.69 has completed at 153.21 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 148.23 minor support will target 146.36 first. Break there will confirm that fall from 153.21 has resumed for 144.51 support next. However, note that break of 151.72 resistance will dampen this bearish view and in turn indicates that choppy price actions from 153.21 are merely consolidations only and should have completed. In such case, retest of 153.21/154.13 resistance zone should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged with 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 138.72 at 154.13 intact. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is treated as correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should target a new low below 118.81 after completing the rebound from 139.69. However, note that decisive break of 154.13 fibonacci resistance will argue that fall from 163.05 has completed at 139.72 already. This will in turn argue that it's probably just a correction to the medium term rise only. Another high above 163.05 might be seen in such case before rise from 118.81 concludes.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY