GBP/JPY fell sharply to as low as 146.43 last week, just inch above 146.36 support. The development is inline with the view that rebound from 139.72 has completed at 153.21 already and fall from there is still in progress. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and break of 146.36 will bring fall resumption towards 144.51 support first and then 139.69 support next. On the upside, above 148.38 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidation. But recovery is expected to be limited well below 150.30 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should target a new low below 118.81 after completing the rebound from 139.69. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 136.69 at 154.12 holds
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.