GBP/JPY's rebound from 139.26 was much stronger than expected and suggests that consolidation from 139.69 is still in progress with the current rise as the third wave. Initial bias is on the upside this week and GBP/JPY could now target 153.21 resistance. Nevertheless, the rise from 139.26 should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 and bring medium term fall resumption. On the downside, below 145.40 support will indicate that rebound from 139.26 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for this support first.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is expected to resume after sideway consolidation from 139.69 completes and should target a new low below 118.81. However, note that sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 will argue that fall from 163.05 has finished already and will, in turn indicate that rise fro 118.81 is still in progress to another high above 163.05 before conclusion.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY