GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 141.99 last week but recovered since then. At this point, we're favoring the case that rebound from 139.26 has completed at 149.15 already. Hence, we'd expect upside of the recovery from 141.99 to be limited by 146.62 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 141.99 will target 139.26 support first. As noted before, break there will confirm that whole decline from 163.05 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. However, firm break of 146.62 will suggest that rise from 139.26 is possibly still in progress for 153.21 resistance as consolidation from 139.69 continues.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is expected to resume after sideway consolidation from 139.69 completes and should target a new low below 118.81. However, note that sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 will argue that fall from 163.05 has finished already and will, in turn indicate that rise fro 118.81 is still in progress to another high above 163.05 before conclusion.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

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