As you know I count the rise started from 1.3654 (11 march) as wave C of a flat correction developed since 1.3503 (23 January). This wave C is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) which ended at 1.5065 (16 April). The break of the 2-4 trendline as well as the fall below the end of wave 4 is a confirmation for the presented count. In such a case one should expect a sharp sell-off in coming days with minimum requirement 1.3654 and more natural target the zone around 1.3000. From a short term point of view we are currently in a correction of the fall started in the end of the last week. This correction still could reach a high above yesterday€™s 1.4708 however if my idea is correct, it should be limited to 1.4835 (61.8 % retracement of the fall started from 1.5065) and the expected sharp sell-off of at least 1000 pips should follow. A key support is 1.4466 and a fall below it will be a confirmation that the expected fall has begun. With an eye on these extremely bearish expectations I stay on my short position opened in the end of the last week.

Trading strategy: 07:56 EST; 12:56 GMT

Short position from 1.4878, stop loss - 1.4850, target - open

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.