My working count suggests that the fall started from 2.0049 (4 April) is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). If this idea is correct, we should see one more fall below 1.9598 in wave 5. With an eye on this idea I entered short earlier today. However I have to admit that my confidence is still low but it will increase if we see a fall below 1.9730. Key resistance is 1.9806 and in a case of a break above it, one should expect re-test of 1.9892 which is very important level because a rise above it would indicate that the movement started from 2.0396 has already ended and a movement for a rise above is currently under way. Looking to the downside, I expect a minor low below 1.9598 to complete the terminal impulse shown on the chart.

Trading strategy: 11:26 EST; 16:26 GMT

Short position from 1.9758, stop loss - 1.9812 (stop and reverse), target - 1.9600

Confidence level low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.