Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- GBP/USD is testing the 1.5970 area and expanding (higher highs, lower lows) as see in the 1H chart. This reflects the market in consolidation.
- So far, the wave count seen in the 4H chart is threatened, but a minor overlap is okay, but if the 4H chart closes below 1.5950, it is very likely that we have a more significant decline coming, perhaps to the 1.5830 level in the near term. Note the cluster of support factors here: 200SMA, Jan. 30 support, and 50% fibonacci retracement level.
- The preferred action is that there is a rally from this 1.60 area towards 1.63. It could fail to break the last high, but an attempt is anticipated to complete a terminal wave count.
- A decline to 1.5750 area is then anticipated. With a break below 1.5950, it will be more likely that the market has already topped off, and this count would be invalid. This means, a rally after breaking below 1.5950 would probably fail to reach 1.63, as a bearish attempt has started.
- The 4H RSI breaking below 40 suggests that the bullish mode is over. A break below 30 further confirms the downtrend. The 1H RSI should not break back above 60, preferably staying below 50.
- Other than the Elliott Wave principles, we can just see in the daily the strength of today's price action so far. If the US session brings back the pair up above 1.60, it is still looking towards 1.63. But if it closes as a strong bearish candle below 1.5950, then we are very likely looking at a decline towards 1.5750.
- On the upside, a break above 1.6140 opens back up the 1.63 target.
Has the Cable already topped off, or is there another bullish attempt left towards 1.63? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist