British Pound-US Dollar (GBP/USD) Analysis
(Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. All technical analysis indicators for the weekly GBP/USD outlook are based on the daily forex charts and in some cases 4-hourly charts. The trading strategies and forecast is based on the technical and fundamental outlook.)
Pound Sterling-US Dollar (GBP/USD) Forecast: Previous Outlook of GBP/USD :
" The break below 1.5912 has made the outlook bearish again. On the downside we expect further downward move first towards a minor support near 1.5850. Such a move will represent the 50% retracement of the upward gains during July 12th's 1.5393 and September 21st's 1.6309. This level is critical as this also represents the 200-day moving average support."
GBP/USD Outlook For This Week:Please check the relative strengths of recent economic releases and technical indications at following links as the base of this week's GBP/USD outlook. We recommend to check the economic strength meter on Fundamental Outlook page.GBP/USD Fundamental OutlookGBP/USD Technical Outlook
British Pound - US Dollar (GBP/USD) tried to break the support of 200-day moving average and went 22 pips below the 1.5850 support mentioned by us during last weekend (quoted above). The pair touched 1.5828 and found support there to enter a sideways mode. After finding some resistance at 1.5901, the pair closed for the week at 1.5879.
As mentioned last week that the support of 200-day moving averages is critical and that may keep GBP/USD in some extended sideways mode. Even some upward consolidation cannot be ignored. Please check this daily chart to see the 200-day moving average support.
On the upside we expect first a resistance near 1.5915. This is derived from the recent price action as well as the fact that the psychological resistance of approaching 1.6000 will start from here. In case the currency pair breaks above this and 1.5920 then some further consolidation towards the 22-day EMA resistance towards 1.5955/1.5960 may take place. The 55-day EMA resistance is near 1.5993 currently.
Our overall near-term outlook for GBP/USD stays bearish and if the above mentioned resistances hold and a break below the recent 1.5828 takes place then we expect further deeper moves towards 61.8% retracement of the upward gains during July 12th's 1.5393 and September 21st's 1.6309 i.e. towards 1.5740 to 1.5755 support zone.
However, on the upside any decisive break over 1.5960 will start neutralizing the above outlook and such a move should target the resistance of the psychological level of 1.6000 first and above that 1.6040/1.6045 resistance zone. Any break above 1.6045 will indicate that the downward consolidation is over and the pair may move further up to retest 1.6175 first and possibly more.Strategies for Trading GBP/USD:
As mentioned above that our near-term outlook for GBP/USD is bearish but initially we stay neutral till any decisive break of the mentioned 200-day moving average does not take place. We shall look forward to take short-selling position near the mentioned resistance levels. The stop-losses will not be much above 1.6000.
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For short term Forex trades, please refer to daily Technical analysis for British Pounds-US Dollars at GBP/USD daily analysis.
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