Economic Events: (GMT)

09:30     GBP      Industrial Production (MoM)                                                    0.2%                      -0.6%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production (MoM)                                          0.3%                      -0.2%

Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

09:30     GBP       Trade Balance                                                                                 -8.4B                      -8.6B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

 12:00    GBP       Interest Rate Decision                                                                 0.50%                    0.50%   

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.     

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                                                                   1.00%                    1.00%

13:30     EUR        ECB Press Conference                                

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.     

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    388K                      367K                     

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3525K                    3437K     

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently at 1.5828 down from the high today of 1.5929 and below the opening. The dollar has been played like a yoyo today, being pulled on a string. While the Sterling was up in early trading but worried about Thursday BoE decision and comments has pulled the pound downward. This week already has been a difficult time for the UK economy with negativity flying in all directions. Retail sales have fallen, unemployment is increasing, spending is down. There is a chance of BoE intervention and QE soon. Greece has been the over riding factor controlling the forex markets as well as the global exchanges. There looks to be a possibility of an agreement close on the horizon.

Wednesday's economic reports ( actual )

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.40%

 
 
 

1.70% 

 
 

JPY

Economy Watchers Current Index 

44.1

 

47.5 

 

47.0 

 
 

CHF

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 
 

EUR

German Trade Balance 

13.9B

 

14.1B 

 

14.9B 

 
 

EUR

French Government Budget Balance 

-90.8B

 

-90.8B 

 

-97.2B 

 
 

EUR

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) 

-6.9%

 

-6.7% 

 

-7.0% 

 
 

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 09  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09  15:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09  16:00  US  Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09  18:00  Italy   Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction

GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.5639
1.5718
1.5770
1.5849
1.5901
1.5980
1.6032

Fibonacci
1.5718
1.5768
1.5799
1.5849
1.5899
1.5930
1.5980

Camarilla
1.5786
1.5798
1.5810
1.5849
1.5835
1.5847
1.5859

Woodie's
-
1.5712
1.5757
1.5842
1.5888
1.5974
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.5875
1.5836
1.5744
-
-