Economic Events: (GMT)

00:01     GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence                                         -32                          -33

 Gfk Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A reading above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00     CHF       Consumption Indicator                                                0.81

The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Due to the current situation of the Swissie this report will be important this week.                         

07:00    EUR        German Retail Sales (MoM)                                      0.8%                      -1.0%

German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                            

07:45    EUR       French Consumer Spending (MoM)                       0.3%                      -0.1%                    

07:45     EUR       French PPI (MoM)                                                       0.1%                      0.4%

French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:55     EUR       German Unemployment Rate                                 6.8%                      6.8%                     

08:55    EUR       German Unemployment Change                             -7K                        -22K

The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month. 

German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.                              

09:00    EUR       Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate                        8.7%                     8.6%

The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market.                

09:00     EUR       Italian PPI (MoM)                                                           0.0%                      0.1%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                            

Tenta   EUR        Spanish Business Confidence                                   -21                          -20

Business Confidence rates the current level of business conditions. It helps to analyze the economic situation in the short term. A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

                               

09:30    GBP       M4 Money Supply (MoM)                                          0.3%                      -0.6%                    

09:30    GBP      Mortgage Approvals                                                   53K                         53K                        

09:30    GBP      Net Lending to Individuals                                         1.2B                       1.0B

M4 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.

Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month by the Bank of England. The data tends to have a limited impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier.

Net lending to individuals measures the change in the total value of new credit extended to consumers. It is closely correlated with consumer spending and confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

10:00    EUR       Unemployment Rate                                                     10.4%                    10.3%     

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.               

 

13:30     USD      Employment Cost Index (QoQ)                                                0.4%                      0.3%

The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

14:45    USD       Chicago PMI                                                                               63.0                        62.5                       

15:00    USD       CB Consumer Confidence                                                      68.2                        64.5

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.           

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently

The USD has been surging all day in response to euroworries about Greece and the lack of progress and mixed signals coming from the EU Summit. Last night the markets were assured in a joint statement that a deal was done and would be presented today to the EU leadership, when at this time, there does not seem to be a completed agreement and the negotiation teams are still meeting in Athens, as the EU Summit convenes.

Overlooking weak economic data from the US the end of last week the dollar has climbed today against all its european counterparts.

In the UK, the latest monthly survey from the property analytics firm Hometrack, published today, reveals that the number of new buyers registering with estate agents fell 10.5 per cent in January, after falls of 2.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent in the previous two months.

The length of time it takes for a property to sell is also increasing, from 9.9 weeks in November to 10.2 weeks in January. Meanwhile the number of sales agreed, which climbed 4.6 per cent in November, has fallen 14.3 per cent in the past month.

Hometrack reports that prices remained static. The survey indicates that there has now been no increase in house prices for 18 month

Economists are looking to some key lending and house price figures due this week to give a further indication of the faltering health of the property market. The Bank of England is expected to report tomorrow that mortgage approvals for house purchases rose to a two-year high of 54,000 in December from 52,854 in November. However, mortgage approvals remain extremely low compared to long-term norms. A level of 70,000-80,000 has in the past been considered consistent with stable house prices.

Once again, it is all about Greece and Portugal keeps coming to the forefront, EU leaders are hoping to resolve Greece before Portugal explodes.

There are numerous economic reports due in the US and the UK that will drive the currency. Any weakness in the UK reports the dollar will take advantage and push the pound farther down.

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Jan 31  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Jan 31  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 07

Feb 01  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 01  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 01  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill

Feb 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt

Feb 01  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08

Feb 01  16:00  US

Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb

08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09

Feb 02  09:50  France  OAT Auction

Feb 02  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.125% 2029

GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.5581
1.5617
1.5660
1.5696
1.5739
1.5775
1.5818

Fibonacci
1.5617
1.5647
1.5666
1.5696
1.5726
1.5745
1.5775

Camarilla
1.5681
1.5688
1.5695
1.5696
1.5710
1.5717
1.5724

Woodie's
-
1.5618
1.5663
1.5698
1.5742
1.5776
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.5717
1.5685
1.5638
-
-