Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently 1.5674 down about ½ cent. The dollar gained against most major rivals on Friday, with Greece's bond swap due subscribed and approval from the EU for the additional funding, as well as key U.S. jobs data.
The U.S. created 227,000 jobs in February and more people found work in the prior two months than previously reported, suggesting the economy's recent momentum is likely to continue. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 8.3% as nearly half-a-million workers reentered the labor force in search of job, the Labor Department.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in January, driven higher by record imports of autos, capital goods and food, government data reported. The trade gap expanded 4.3% in January to $52.6 billion from $50.4 billion in December.
In the UK today, Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased back in February to 3.5% from the 4.1% seen in November, the latest Bank of England/ GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes survey shows. This was the lowest reading on this measure since August 2010.Expectations for inflation in the 12 months after that also eased back to 2.9% from 3.4% In November while longer-term inflation expectations (i.e. in 5 years time or so) fell to 3.2% from the 3.5%seen in November.
UK construction output fell sharply in January following a large decrease in December, figures published by National Statistics Friday showed. Construction output fell 12.3% on the month in January, after a 11.8% monthly decline in December. Output was down 2.3%compared with January 2011. As the monthly data are non-seasonally adjusted and there is only a short data series available for analysis it makes interpreting the data difficult. December and January are weak months for construction output, due to the colder weather. This January, however, was weaker than the 6.8% monthly drop last year
Output prices rose at their fastest since April 2011 and core inflation ticked up for the first time in five months, raising concerns over the inflationary outlook. Manufacturing output growth eased in January, following a strong rise in the previous month, while a fall in industrial production means a weak start to the sector in the first quarter, figures released by National Statistics showed Friday.
The deal is done, finally. Greece finished their debt swap with private creditors. Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece's outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government's minimum threshold, have agreed to the swap, easing pressures on the eurozone. Conditions are in place for Greece to get its second bailout, said Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker in a statement released Friday. I welcome the significant progress achieved in the preparation of the second Greek adjustment program, said Juncker, after a teleconference between euro-zone finance ministers on Friday
Economic Releases actual v. forecast
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Industrial Production (MoM)
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Upcoming Economic Events
06:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
08:15 CHF PPI (MoM)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
09:30 GBP Current Account
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.
Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)
Mar 12 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn new Sep 2012 Bubill
Mar 12 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Mar 13 09:30 Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL
Mar 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction
Mar 13 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Mar 13 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 22
Mar 13 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21
Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction
Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt
Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction
Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22
GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3