Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently 1.5674 down about ½ cent. The dollar gained against most major rivals on Friday, with Greece's bond swap due subscribed and approval from the EU for the additional funding, as well as key U.S. jobs data.

The U.S. created 227,000 jobs in February and more people found work in the prior two months than previously reported, suggesting the economy's recent momentum is likely to continue. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 8.3% as nearly half-a-million workers reentered the labor force in search of job, the Labor Department.

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in January, driven higher by record imports of autos, capital goods and food, government data reported.  The trade gap expanded 4.3% in January to $52.6 billion from $50.4 billion in December.

In the UK today, Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased back in February to 3.5% from the 4.1% seen in November, the latest Bank of England/ GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes survey shows. This was the lowest reading on this measure since August 2010.Expectations for inflation in the 12 months after that also eased back to 2.9% from 3.4% In November while longer-term inflation expectations (i.e. in 5 years time or so) fell to 3.2% from the 3.5%seen in November.

UK construction output fell sharply in January following a large decrease in December, figures published by National Statistics Friday showed. Construction output fell 12.3% on the month in January, after a 11.8% monthly decline in December. Output was down 2.3%compared with January 2011. As the monthly data are non-seasonally adjusted and there is only a short data series available for analysis it makes interpreting the data difficult. December and January are weak months for construction output, due to the colder weather. This January, however, was weaker than the 6.8% monthly drop last year

Output prices rose at their fastest since April 2011 and core inflation ticked up for the first time in five months, raising concerns over the inflationary outlook. Manufacturing output growth eased in January, following a strong rise in the previous month, while a fall in industrial production means a weak start to the sector in the first quarter, figures released by National Statistics showed Friday.

The deal is done, finally. Greece finished their debt swap with private creditors. Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece's outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government's minimum threshold, have agreed to the swap, easing pressures on the eurozone. Conditions are in place for Greece to get its second bailout, said Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker in a statement released Friday. I welcome the significant progress achieved in the preparation of the second Greek adjustment program, said Juncker, after a teleconference between euro-zone finance ministers on Friday

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Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Mar. 09

 

AUD

 
 

Trade Balance 

-0.67B

 

1.51B 

 

1.33B 

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.2%

 

3.6% 

 

4.5% 

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

0.1%

 

0.0% 

 

0.7% 

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

21.5%

 

19.6% 

 

23.8% 

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

11.4%

 

12.4% 

 

12.8% 

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.7%

 

17.4% 

 

18.1% 

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.7% 

 

0.7% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.4% 

 

1.1% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.1%

 

0.7% 

 

0.1% 

 
 

Upcoming Economic Events

06:45     EUR        French CPI (MoM)

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.                                                                                                              

 08:15    CHF       PPI (MoM)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. 

09:30     GBP      Current Account

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.

19:00     USD       Federal Budget Balance

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.                         

 Government Bond Auction Schedule    (this week)

Mar 12  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn new Sep 2012 Bubill

Mar 12  18:00  US  Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 13  09:30  Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Mar 13  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13  18:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Mar 14  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Mar 14  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Mar 15  09:50  France  BTAN auction

Mar 15  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15  10:50  France  OATi auction

Mar 15  16:00  US  Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.5444
1.5553
1.5616
1.5725
1.5788
1.5897
1.5960

Fibonacci
1.5553
1.5619
1.5659
1.5725
1.5791
1.5831
1.5897

Camarilla
1.5631
1.5647
1.5663
1.5725
1.5694
1.5710
1.5726

Woodie's
-
1.5541
1.5592
1.5713
1.5764
1.5885
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.5756
1.5709
1.5584
-
-