Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently exchanging hands at 1.5908 up +.0064. It has been an amazing day for the Sterling climbing most of the day, with virtually no supportive news or data. The House Price Index came in at 1.6% much lower than last month. Otherwise that was it; US Housing market index came in below expectations but matched the previous index.

Investors moved from the USD starting at the end of the US session on Friday and continued today, as they reveled in the positive economic news and the conclusion of the Greece fiasco, investors moved to more risk.

With positive tones from the Fed last week, the possibility of additional money easing became less and less a probability and a whiff of inflation seemed to surface, although that is accounted for by higher gasoline prices.

The markets are void of data this week.

What little there was for the US today showed, the measure of confidence by builders of new single-family homes remained unchanged in March after a slight downward revision to February's data, the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo reported. Although improvements in U.S. job market trends and an upward revision in income growth are important factors that could help the housing market turn a corner, though rising gasoline prices may pose a hurdle, according to mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNMA)

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Economic Data for March 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 
 
 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

1.6%

 
 
 

4.1% 

 
 

 

AUD

 
 
 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Current Account 

4.5B

 

4.3B 

 

3.4B 

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) 

-7.4%

 

-3.8% 

 

5.2% 

 
 

 

CLP

 
 
 

Chilean GDP (YoY) 

4.5%

 

4.2% 

 

3.7% 

 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.4% 

 

1.0% 

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

NAHB Housing Market Index 

28

 

30 

 

28 

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

3-Month Bill Auction 

0.095%

 
 
 

0.095% 

 
 

 

Economic Events Scheduled for March 20, 2012 Europe and Americas

09:15     CHF         Industrial Production (QoQ)

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.                                                                                       

10:30     GBP      Core CPI (YoY)

10:30     GBP      CPI (YoY)

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                                       

12:00     GBP      CBI Industrial Trends Orders

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers.                                                                                                       

13:30     USD      Building Permits            

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.                      

13:30     USD      Housing Starts

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.

 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 21  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 21  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Mar 21  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills

Mar 22  10:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Mar 22  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Mar 22  15:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar

28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29

GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.5748
1.5785
1.5841
1.5878
1.5934
1.5971
1.6027

Fibonacci
1.5785
1.5821
1.5842
1.5878
1.5914
1.5935
1.5971

Camarilla
1.5871
1.5880
1.5888
1.5878
1.5906
1.5914
1.5923

Woodie's
-
1.5790
1.5851
1.5883
1.5943
1.5976
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.5953
1.5887
1.5860
-
-