GBP/USD Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

By Roger Baettig | November 18 2012 3:18 PM

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British Pounds-US Dollars (GBP/USD) Fundamental Outlook

The GBP/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for GBP/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The GBP/USD Economic Strength Meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

Pound-Dollars (GBP/USD) -Recent Economic Releases:

U.K. (GBP): RICS Housing Price Balance: -7%, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (-15%) as well as the previous -14%.U.K. (GBP): Consumer price Index: Year on year change in core CPI 2.6% was more than the previous 2.1%. The year on year CPI was 2.7% and positive as compared to the forecasts (2.3%) as well as the previous 2.2%. Month on month CPI change was 0.1% and less than the expected 0.2% and previous 0.4%.U.K. (GBP): Producer Price Index: The year on year change in PPI Input was 0.1% and positive as compared to the forecasts (-0.5%) as well as the previous -1.0%. Year on year PPI Output remained same as the previous 2.5%. Year on year PPI Core Output was 1.4% and same as the consensus but better than the previous 1.2%. The month on month change in PPI Output was 0.1% and less than the consensus of 0.2% and previous 0.5%.U.K. (GBP): ILO Unemployment Rate (3 months) 7.8%, positive as compared to the forecasts as well as the previous 7.9%.U.K. (GBP): Average Earnings (3 months/year): Change in earnings excluding bonus was 1.9% and less than the consensus and previous 2.0%. Earnings including bonus were 1.8% and though less than the expected 1.9% but more than the previous 1.7%.U.K. (GBP): Claimant Count: Claimant Count Change was 10.1K and negative as compared to the forecasts (0.0K) as well as the previous 0.8K. Claimant count rate remained same as previous release i.e. 4.8%.U.K. (GBP): Retail Sales: Year on year change 0.6% and quite negative as compared to the forecasts (1.7%) as well as the previous 2.4%. Same was the case with month on month data which was -0.8%.U.S. (USD): Monthly Budget Statement: USD -120B, negative as compared to the forecasts (US$ -114B) as well as the previous 75B U.S. Dollars.U.S. (USD): Produce Price Index: Year on year change in PPI was 2.3% and though less than the consensus of 2.6%, it was better than the previous 2.1%. The year on year change in the PPI ex Food & Energy was 2.1% and less than the consensus of 2.5% and previous 2.3%. Month on month change was -0.2% and negative as compared to the forecasts (0.1%) as well as the previous 0.0%.U.S. (USD): Retail Sales: Month on month change in retail sales (-0.3%) was negative as compared to the forecasts (-0.2%) as well as the previous 1.3%. The same with month on month retail sales ex autos which was 0.0% against the expected 0.2% and previous 1.2%.U.S. (USD): Consumer Price Index: Year on year change 2.2% and positive as compared to the forecasts (2.1%) as well as the previous 2.0%. Month on month change 0.1% was same as the consensus but quite less than the previous 0.6%. Year on year change in the CPI ex Food & Energy was 2% and same as the consensus as well as the previous release.U.S. (USD): Jobless Claims: Initial claims were 439K and hence quite negative as compared to the forecasts (375K) as well as the previous 361K. Same with the continuing claims which were 3.334M against the expected 3.210M and previous 3.163M.U.S. (USD): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: -10.7 and quite negative as compared to the forecasts (2.0) as well as the previous 5.7.U.S. (USD): Net Long-Term TIC Flows: USD 3.3B and quite negative as compared to the forecasts (USD 75.0B) as well as the previous 90.3B U.S. Dollars.U.S. (USD): Capacity Utilization: 77.8%, negative as compared to the forecasts (78.3%) as well as the previous 78.2%.