GBPUSD: With a break and close above the 1.6234/39 levels, its Dec 31'09/Jan 04'10 highs established, risk of further upside recovery is likely to be seen towards its .50 Ret(1.6875-1.5830 declines) at 1.6342. Above there should propel the pair further towards its Dec 16'09 high at 1.6409. We expect the pair to face a stiff resistance here which could cap its recovery and turn it down. Further out, its Nov 25'09 high at 1.6744 and then the 1.6875 level, its Nov 16'0-09 high come in as the next upside targets. Its daily stochasticsis bullish and pointing to the upside suggesting further strength. However, the risk to our analysis will be a break back below its just invalidated resistance at 1.6239/34 level. If this occurs, we will look for the pair to decline towards its daily 200 emaat 1.6196 with a violation of there targeting its Jan 07'10 low at 1.6056 and next the 1.5830 level, its Dec 30'09. Below the latter level will set the stage for the resumption of its declines activated off the 1.6875 level towards the 1.5706 level, its Oct 13'09 low with a clearance of that level seeing a 100% price retracement (from 1.5706-1.6875 levels) and opening the door for additional downside towards its .50 Ret (1.3501-1.7041 rally) at 1.5273.

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