GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

GBP/USD's strong rebound and break of 1.6057 resistance suggests that pullback from 1.6237 has completed at 1.5896 already. Whole rebound from 1.5829 is possibly resuming and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for 100% projection of 1.5829 to 1.6327 from 1.5896 at 1.6304. But upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.5896 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5829 support.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.

However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.