GBPUSD: Unless a firm break and hold above the 1.6234/39 levels, its Dec 31'09/Jan 04'10 highs followed with a violation of its Jan 19'10 high/falling trendline at 1.6400/56 materializes, risk remains lower with eyes on the 1.5892 level, its Jan 07'10 low and then the 1.5830 level, its Dec 30'09 low. Below the latter will trigger the resumption of its declines from the 1.6875 level in Mid Nov'09 and set the stage for further weakness towards the 1.5706 level, its Oct 13'09 low where a break will see a 100% price retracement of its move from 1.5706- 1.6875 and open the door for additional pressure towards its .50 Fibonacci retracement (1.3501-1.7041 rally) at 1.5273. However, if above the 1.6234/39 levels are traded, our downside view will be neutralized temporarily and focus will then turn to the Jan 19'10 high/short term falling trendline at 1.6400/09 where a cap is expected. Further out, the 1.6744 level, its Nov 25'09 high comes in as the next resistance and possibly higher. On the whole, broader bias remains lower despite its present corrective price activities.
Daily Chart: GBPUSD