The GBP/USD has balanced along our 2nd tier uptrend line after getting pummeled on Friday. Britain's Prelim GDP data printed 6 basis points below analyst expectations (-0.4% vs 0.2%), shocking investors and igniting speculation that the BoE will keep its QE package open. This sentiment contradicts recent optimism garnered from strong Services PMI and CCC data points. However, investors should keep in mind that the Cable's incredible run from 10/13-10/23 was provoked by a more neutral monetary stance emanating from the BoE. Therefore, one can only speculate how the BoE will approach its monetary policy over the near-term. As we explained in our previous post, there's a chance the BoE changed its tone in advance to Prelim GDP data to help put the Pound in a more favorable position once the news hit the wire. Regardless, the BoE will likely continue its psychological tango with investors to move the Cable in a direction it deems appropriate for Britain's economy.
Investors will receive more heavily-weighted econ data from Britain tomorrow with the release of CB Realized Sales. A positive consumer-oriented release could help stem the bleeding and allow the Cable to right itself. However, it's difficult to imagine tomorrow's CB number coming in ahead of expectations since Britain's last two Retail Sales numbers have flat lined (0%). Regardless, investors will be keyed in since Friday's GDP number has put the spotlight on Sterling for the time being. The U.S. will be releasing important econ data of its own, including HPI and CB Consumer Confidence figures along with a public address from Treasury Secretary Geithner. Activity in the U.S. will only heat up as the weak progresses with Durable Goods and New Home Sales tomorrow along with Advance GDP on Wednesday. The S&P futures haven't been able to break through 1100 time and again. The S&P's resistance at 1100 has been a problem for the Cable since the two are positively correlated. Therefore, the performance of upcoming U.S. data and Q3 releases should have a noticeable, broad-based impact on the Greenback. On the other hand, the Cable has had a mind of its own this Autumn, showing its direction ultimately relies upon the BoE's perceived monetary policy.
Technically speaking, the Cable is suddenly facing four fresh downtrend lines and 1.65 is serving as a psychological barrier once again. The GBP/USD's last run topped out beneath 9/11 highs, meaning the currency pair has its work cut out for it to the topside since a reversal into a longer downtrend isn't out of the question. As for the downside, the Cable has managed to avoid a retest of 9/21 lows thus far. Our 2nd tier uptrend line should play an importance role in preventing such an occurrence. Meanwhile, though far away, the Cable still has our 1st tier uptrend line to fall back on along with the psychological 1.60 level and previous October lows should the situation deteriorate further. Therefore, the Cable's uptrend is salvageable as long as near-term technical cushions hold up.
Present Price: 1.6341
Resistances: 1.6366, 1.6391, 1.6413, 1.6445, 1.6467, 1.6493
Supports: 1.6329, 1.6295, 1.6265, 1.6247, 1.6227, 1.6205, 1.6185
Psychological: 1.65, 1.60