Economic Events

Jan. 30  13:30                    USD                                                      Core PCE Price Index (MoM)                                                                                                      

                Tent                      EUR                                                       German CPI (MoM)                                                                                                        

                13:30                    USD                                                      Personal Spending (MoM)                                                                                                           

Jan. 31  07:45                    EUR                                                       French Consumer Spending (MoM)                                                                                                        

                08:55                    EUR                                                       German Unemployment Rate                                                                                                    

                08:55                    EUR                                                       German Unemployment Change                                                                                                              

                10:00                    EUR                                                       Unemployment Rate                                                                                                     

                13:30                    USD                                                      Employment Cost Index (QoQ)                                                                                                 

                14:45                    USD                                                      Chicago PMI                                                                                                      

                15:00                    USD                                                      CB Consumer Confidence                                                                                                            

Feb. 01 08:30                    CHF                                                       SVME PMI                                                                                                          

                09:00                    EUR                                                       Manufacturing PMI                                                                                                         

                09:30                    GBP                                                      Manufacturing PMI                                                                                                         

                10:00                    EUR                                                       CPI (YoY)                                                                                                             

                13:15                    USD                                                      ADP Nonfarm Employment Change                                                                                                         

                15:00                    USD                                                      ISM Manufacturing Index                                                                                                            

Feb. 02 13:30                    USD                                                      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                                                                                                       

                13:30                    USD                                                      Initial Jobless Claims                                                                                                       

                13:30                    USD                                                      Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                                                                                                                 

                13:30                    USD                                                      Continuing Jobless Claims                                                                                                            

Feb. 03 09:30                    GBP                                                      Services PMI                                                                                                     

                10:00                    EUR                                                       Retail Sales (MoM)                                                                                                          

                13:30                    USD                                                      Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)                                                                                                               

                13:30                    USD                                                      Nonfarm Payrolls                                                                                                             

                13:30                    USD                                                      Unemployment Rate                                                                                                     

                13:30                    USD                                                      Private Nonfarm Payrolls                                                                                                              

                15:00                    USD                                                      ISM Non-Manufacturing Index


GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis Jan. 30- Feb. 3, 2012, Forecast


Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period.


GBP/USD: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

Characteristics Average broker spread: 4-5 pips  Daily range average: 150-200 pips  Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT - 1700 GMT) Some factors affecting the GBP/USD rate: 

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
  • High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

Trading the GBP/USD 

Trading Experience: Expert currency traders Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trades 

How to trade? 

Applying Technical Analysis and/or Analyzing Fundamental News from the UK and US zone to make GBP/USD trading decisions. Watch out for false break outs. Surprising economic news releases can make the GBP/USD move a lot in one direction without much retracement. 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5728 +0.0038 (+0.24%)

The pound moved in tandem to the USD this week. The greenback lost against all trading partners based on the FOMC promise to keep interest rates low through 2014.

U.K. data showed that retail sales volume dropped to the lowest level since March 2009, with retailers expecting additional weakness in February.

Around the world this week:

Italian and Spanish bond yields continue lower, 10 yr in Italy below 6%, Spain's below 5%

German IFO business confidence rises to 8 month high German consumer confidence at best since April

Euro zone manufacturing and services composite index unexpectedly moves back above 50, led by Germany

US Durable Goods orders in Dec surprise to upside but how much was pulled forward from 2012 due to 12/31 expiration of full depreciation expensing?

Jan US confidence rises to best since Feb '11

Richmond and KC manufacturing survey's both rise

Bank of Thailand cuts rates, Reserve Bank of India cuts reserve requirements

Greek Creditors announce agreement, deal to be finalized beginning of the week

Portuguese yields spike, 5 yr CDS up 150 bps on week to new high and CDS insurance skyrockets

Spanish unemployment for Q4 rises to 22.9%

Italian consumer confidence holds at lowest since at least '96 when survey began

Q4 US GDP rises 2.8%, a touch below expectations but nominal GDP gains just 3.2%, the weakest since Q3 '09. If deflator was in line with expectations, Real GDP would have been up just 1.3%. Real final sales up just .8% vs. 3.2% in Q3

Initial Jobless Claims normalize at 377k after holiday distorted 356k last week

Inflation expectations within UoM rise to 3.3%, the most since Sept and remains above the 20 yr avg of 3.0%. Expectations also rise to multi month highs in TIPS market

New Home Sales remain weak, prices fall 12.8% y/o/y

FOMC stretches out zero rates until late 2014, US$ resumes downward trend against everything. Fed destroying the price mechanism as if interest rates are artificially priced, what are assets really worth? If we don't know what assets are really worth, how can capital be efficiently allocated?

Japan's economy would have boomed over the past 10 yrs.

Fitch rating service downgrades, Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain

Upcoming Sovereign Bond Sales Dates:

Jan 30  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Jan 30  10:10  Norway  Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond

Jan 30  11:00  Belgium  OLO Auction

Jan 30  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on Feb 06

Jan 31  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Jan 31  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 07

Feb 01  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 01  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 01  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill

Feb 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt

Feb 01  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08

Feb 01  16:00  US

Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb

08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09

Feb 02  09:50  France  OAT Auction

Feb 02  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.125% 2029 I/L Gil

GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3