GBP/USD's strong rebound last week and the strong break of near term falling trend line suggests that whole decline from 1.6298 is completed with three waves down to 1.5343 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside this week. Break of 1.5909 resistance will confirm this case and target a test on 1.6298 high. On the downside, below 1.5811 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But rebound from 1.5343 would remain in favor to continue as long as 1.5664 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5296 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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