GBP/USD lost momentum hitting 1.6271, limited below 1.6276 resistance and retreated. The development suggests that consolidations from 1.6276 is still in progress, with fall from 1.6271 as the third leg. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 1.5962 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, we'll stay bullish in GBP/USD as long as 1.5750 support holds and expect another rally eventually. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6276 will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed. In such case, GBP/USD should target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

/

/

/

/