GBP/USD consolidated below 1.5851 for most of the week before breaking out to the upside and reached as high as 1.5973. Whole rebound from 1.5271 is still in progress and initial bias is on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5271 at 1.6103 next. On the downside, break of 1.5631 support is needed to confirm completion of such rebound. Or, we'll stay near term bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161 and should be near to an end, if not finished at 1.6476. Near term outlook is quite mixed as the nature of the rebound from 1.5271 has many possibilities of roughly equal chance. But in any case, upside should be limited below 1.6618 resistance. Eventually, we'd expect a break of 1.4229 support to signal resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and that should send GBP/USD through 1.3503 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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