GBP/USD's fall from 1.6875 lost momentum ahead of 1.5706 support and formed a short term bottom at 1.5829. Subsequent rebound hit 38.2% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6229 and retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.6046 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. But after all, more consolidations should still be seen as long as 1.5892 support holds and risk of another rise remains. On the upside, above 1.6232 will bring stronger rally towards 61.8% retracement at 1.6475.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475. will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, should be limited by resistance zone of 1.7332/8236 and bring down trend resumption towards 1.4063 low. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 1.8236 fibonacci level holds.
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