Despite edging lower to 1.5896, subsequent rebound suggests that GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.5829 is still in progress. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for 1.6237 resistance, and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.5829 to 1.6327 from 1.5896 at 1.6304. But upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and bring resumption of the whole fall from 1.6875. On the downside, below 1.5896 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.5829 first. Break there will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has resumed and should target 1.5706 key cluster support.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.

However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475. will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, should be limited by resistance zone of 1.7332/8236 and bring down trend resumption towards 1.4063 low. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 1.8236 fibonacci level holds.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD