GBP/USD's decline resumed last week after recovery was limited at 1.5814 and reached as low as 1.5350. Late recovery on Friday suggests that an intraday low is in place. Initial bias in neutral this week and some consolidations could be seen first. Nevertheless, recovery is expected to be limited well below 1.5814 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5350 will target 61.8% projection of 1.6456 to 1.5534 from 1.5814 at 1.5244 next.
In the bigger picture, we're holding on the the bearish view that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5829 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.