GBP/USD's fall resumed last week and dived to as low as 1.5151 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 100% projection at 1.4892, which is close to 61.8% retracement of 1.3053 to 1.7043 at 1.4855. On the upside, above 1.5318 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.5574 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the development is inline with our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD