GBP/USD rebounded strong to as high as 1.5779 last week but lacked follow through momentum. Also, note that the pair is limited well below the failing 55 days EMA and 1.5887 resistance and thus, there is no indication of near term reversal yet. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 1.5525 minor support. Break there will indicate that rebound from 1.5422 is completed and should flip bias back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.6165 through 1.5422 to retest 1.5271. Above 1.5779, however, will turn focus to 1.5887 resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. At this point, we're favoring the case that such consolidation is either finished with three waves to 1.6746, or five waves as a triangle at 1.6165. Break of 1.5271 support will affirm either case and should target 1.4229 key support. Decisive break there should extend the long term down trend through 1.3503 low. Meanwhile, strong rebound ahead of 1.4229, or a break of 1.6165, will dampen the immediate bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.3503 instead.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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