GBP/USD dived to as low as 1.4783 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 1.3053 to 1.7043 at 1.4855 and formed a short term bottom. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week and corrective rise from 1.4783 might extend further. Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.4922 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4783 low first.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in out bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD