GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | March 27 2010 11:15 AM

GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.4798 last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.4783 low and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen. But upside should be limited by 1.5000 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 1.4783 low will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364. On the upside, however, above 1.5000 will argue that fall from 1.5381 is completed and consolidation from 1.4783 is still in progress with one more rising leg. Though, even in such case, we'd expect strong resistance at 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the consolidation and bring down trend resumption.

Sponsorship Link

In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD