GBP/USD's sharp decline last week indicates that rebound from 1.5361 is already finished at 1.5669. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.5361 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.6165 and should target 1.5271 next. On the upside, though, break of 1.5525 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish case and turn bias neutral for some more consolidations between 1.52361/5773 before decline resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. At this point, we're favoring the case that such consolidation is either finished with three waves to 1.6746, or five waves as a triangle at 1.6165. Break of 1.5271 support will affirm either case and should target 1.4229 key support. Decisive break there should extend the long term down trend through 1.3503 low. Meanwhile, strong rebound ahead of 1.4229, or a break of 1.6165, will dampen the immediate bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.3503 instead.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.