GBP/USD's rebound from 1.4798 extended further to as last week and further rise cannot be ruled out. But we're still expecting upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422, which is close to 55 days EMA (now at 1.5387) to conclude such rise as well as the three wave consolidation from 1.4783. Below 1.5128 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4783 low first. However, note that decisive break of 1.5422 fibo level will suggest that stronger rebound is underway for 1.5814 cluster resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD