GBP/USD's strong rebound last week confirmed that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.5234 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 1.5773 resistance. At this point, there is no clear indication that choppy fall from 1.6746 is finished as it's still maintaining a series of lower highs lower lows with falling 55 days EMA. We'd stay bearish as long as 1.5773 resistance holds and favor eventual fall resumption for below 1.5234. However, decisive break of 1.5773 will argue that fall from 1.6745 is finished and would turn outlook bullish for 1.6165 and above.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. At this point, we're favoring the case that such consolidation is either finished with three waves to 1.6746, or five waves as a triangle at 1.6165. Deeper decline is in favor to 1.4229 key support and decisive break there should extend the long term down trend through 1.3503 low. Meanwhile, strong rebound ahead of 1.4229, or a break of 1.6165, will dampen the immediate bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.3503 instead.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.