GBP/USD dived to 1.5125 last week but rebounded from there. Nevertheless, note that such rebound lost momentum well ahead of 1.5496/5521 resistance zone and GBP/USD weakened again. Also, the pair is staying below 55 days EMA with daily MACD staying below signal line too. Hence, we're still favoring the case that three wave consolidation from 1.4783 is completed at 1.5521 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 1.5125 support this week. Break there will affirm our view and target a retest on 1.4783 low. On the upside, note that break of 1.5494 will delay the bearish view and bring another high above 1.5521. But, even in such case, upside should be limited by 50% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5620 to conclude the consolidation from 1.4783 and finally bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD