GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.4475 and recovered after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.4487. Further recovery cannot be ruled out initially this week but after all, upside is expected to be limited by 1.4936 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.5389 to 1.4475 to 1.4932) and bring fall resumption. Below 1.4646 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.4475 will target 100% projection at 1.3848 next.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, corrective rise from 1.3503 should have completed at 1.7043 already and fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5221 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.