Despite edging higher to 1.5928, GBP/USD lost some momentum and retreated sharply. A short term top should be in place on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside with focus on 1.5729 support. Sustained break there will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for a test on 1.5234 low. Note that so far, GBP/USD is held well below 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Thus, whole decline from 1.6746 remains mildly in favor to continue.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. At this point, we're favoring the case that such consolidation is either finished with three waves to 1.6746, or five waves as a triangle at 1.6165. Deeper decline is in favor to 1.4229 key support and decisive break there should extend the long term down trend through 1.3503 low. Meanwhile, strong rebound ahead of 1.4229, or a break of 1.6165, will dampen the immediate bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.3503 instead.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.